We’ve been doing the prep calls for this week’s OTT Question Time Online with Leah Hooper Rosa, of Warner Bros Discovery, and Julie Mitchelmore of Hearst Networks EMEA – where we’re talking about the makeup and approaches of modern streaming operations – and an interesting question came up: what would OTT operations, and the wider world of linear TV and on-demand, look like if the pandemic had never happened?

I remember thinking about the perversity of the situation even back then. Obviously, obviously, it was a horrible time and yet, the streaming industry benefitted. Lockdowns drove a huge surge in viewing, subscriptions, and investment.

But what if that sudden updraft had never happened? What if streaming had continued on its pre-2020 trajectory? Here’s where we might be now, in that counterfactual world, in 2025.

#1. Subscriber Growth Would Have Been Slower and Shallower

The lockdown years saw unprecedented subscription growth:

• In 2020 alone, global SVOD subscriptions jumped by 26% to reach 1.1 billion (reported at the time by Digital TV Europe)
• Disney+, which had launched in the US in late 2019 and in the UK in March 2020, went from 26.5m subscribers in Q4 2019 to 94.9m by year-end
• Netflix added 36m new members in 2020 (from 167m to 203m), its biggest annual increase ever

But without lockdowns keeping people at home, churn might have been higher: subscribers would have been quicker to cancel when a service didn’t have something new to watch.

Takeout: today’s subscriber totals would likely be 10–20% lower, but retention and ARPU might look healthier.

#2. Content Pipelines Wouldn’t Have Been as Disrupted

Production freezes in 2020–21 created gaps filled by libraries and cheaper factual/unscripted. That pause distorted commissioning.

• Without it the arms race for originals would have run hotter, faster, and more evenly
• Tentpole series and films would have rolled out on schedule, giving a steadier competitive rhythm
• Broadcasters might have held audience share longer – no “forced trial” of streaming by viewers starved of new shows

Takeout: by 2025, the content market might look less bloated (no glut of rushed greenlights) but more competitive (linear still fighting harder).

#3. Advertising Adoption Would Be Behind Schedule

AVOD/FAST growth was pandemic-driven as studios needed ad revenue to offset box office collapse and consumers, under financial strain, welcomed free options.

Without lockdowns, theatrical revenue would have held up and economic shocks would have been milder. That means:

• Netflix might not have introduced their ad tier until much later (if at all)
• Amazon and Disney+ ad plans would have arrived later, and smaller
• FAST adoption would still be growing, but with less urgency from studios

Takeout: the AVOD renaissance was probably still inevitable but without the pandemic, it might have come later and would have felt like a strategic pivot rather than a survival mechanism

#4. Hybrid Pay Models Would Still be… Experimental

Day-and-date was already around, of course, but, born of necessity, it morphed into PVOD. Trolls World Tour went digital because cinemas were closed. Warner Bros. dumped its 2021 slate onto HBO Max. Scarlett Johansson sued Disney in July 2021 for breach of contract, alleging the simultaneous theatrical and Disney+ release of Black Widow deprived her of potential box office bonuses.

In a no-pandemic world:

• Theatrical windows would have eroded more slowly, preserving box office as a stable revenue stream
• The flashpoint legal battles over hybrid releases might never have happened. Scarlett Johansson’s lawsuit against Disney – emblematic of the clash between talent contracts and streaming economics – was a direct product of the pandemic conditions
• PVOD would remain niche (or niche-ish), not mainstream

Takeout: in a no-pandemic world, theatrical would likely still command greater weight in the release strategy mix. Windows might not have contracted to the extent they have.

#5. Technology and Ops Investment Would Be Flatter

Lockdowns stressed networks and customer service lines. That justified crisis-driven tech spend like cloud scaling, automated customer service and recommendation algorithms.

Without that surge in usage:

• These investments might have arrived 2–3 years later
• Adaptive streaming, CDN distribution, and AI-powered customer support would be less mature today

Takeout: the industry might have saved billions in OPEX but been slower to modernise.

#6. Competitive Landscape Would Be More Staggered

The launches of HBO Max, Peacock, and Paramount+ in 2020–21 weren’t about seizing fresh land – most of that had already gone to Netflix, Amazon, and Disney. They were about finding new revenue streams for companies still reliant on cable and theatrical (and, perhaps, experimenting with walled gardens).

Without the pandemic’s surge in streaming demand:

• Launches would have been more tentative, with less marketing heat and slower uptake
• Would Paramount+ have launched at all or, if it did, would the company have had more time to get its tech and UI/UX right?
• We might have seen earlier bundling or joint ventures. Rather than each studio rushing out a standalone service, slower growth could have forced partnerships (e.g. joint US offerings, or earlier inclusion in aggregators like Amazon Channels / Apple TV)

Takeout: by 2025, we’d likely see a more consolidated market: fewer services overall, but stronger incumbents, with latecomers still testing their footing rather than chasing inflated subscriber goals.

#7. Work Culture Wouldn’t Have Shifted So Sharply

Lockdowns forced the industry to experiment with distributed ways of working, accelerating change that might otherwise have taken a decade.

• Remote post-production pipelines scaled quickly. Editing, dubbing, subtitling, and localisation workflows moved to the cloud
• Global collaboration normalised. A colourist in London, a sound designer in Toronto, and a director in LA could all work simultaneously on the same asset
• Executive culture changed. Zoom and Teams made cross-border dealmaking routine, reducing reliance on expensive travel

Takeout: would any of these things have happened, as quickly as they did, if not for lockdowns?

Conclusion

The pandemic wasn’t a tailwind – it was an updraft. It lifted streaming suddenly to a higher plateau, years earlier than expected. But landing there has been difficult: billions written off in content and restructuring (e.g. Warner Bros. Discovery, up to $5.3bn in 2022/23, Disney’s “impairment charge” of $1.5-$1.8bn in 2023), tens of thousands of jobs lost, theatrical weakened.

Without that shock, the industry might be smaller today but also more stable. Growth would have been slower, but the long-term correction less painful.

Thoughts? DM me on LinkedIn.